TORONTO, ONTARIO, January 15, 2020 – Toronto Real Estate Board President Michael Collins announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 5,367 condominium apartment sales through TREB’s MLS® System in the fourth quarter of 2019. This result was up by 3.8 per cent compared to the fourth quarter of 2018.

New condominium apartment listings were down substantially by 11.9 per cent on a year-over-year basis when comparing to Q4 2018. This suggests that condo market conditions tightened further over the past year.

“The condominium apartment market segment continued to perform well in 2019, with strong growth in sales and average price. Condominium apartments provide a relatively affordable entry point into the home ownership market for first-time buyers, who account for a substantial portion of demand each year,” said Mr. Collins.

The average price of a condominium apartment increased by 10.4 per cent from $558,733 in Q4 2018 to $616,591 in Q4 2019. Year-over-year price growth in the City of Toronto, which accounted for 71 per cent of transactions, was similar to the GTA as whole, at 10.3 per cent, resulting in an average price of $660,379.

“Tighter market conditions in the GTA condo market translated into increased competition between buyers and an accelerated pace of price growth. TREB continues to urge policy makers to develop strategies to bring more ownership and rental supply online, so that balanced market conditions and a moderate pace of price growth can be sustained over the long term,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Chief Market Analyst.

Q4 2019 Condo Market Report

TORONTO, January 7, 2020 – Toronto Real Estate Board President Michael Collins reported that December 2019 residential sales reported through TREB’s MLS® System by Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® were up by 17.4 per cent year-over-year to 4,399. Total sales for calendar year 2019 amounted to 87,825 – up by 12.6 per cent compared to the decade low 78,015 sales reported in 2018. On an annual basis, 2019 sales were in line with the median annual sales result for the past decade.

“We certainly saw a recovery in sales activity in 2019, particularly in the second half of the year. As anticipated, many home buyers who were initially on the sidelines moved back into the market place starting in the spring. Buyer confidence was buoyed by a strong regional economy and declining contract mortgage rates over the course of the year,” said Mr. Collins.

While sales were up in 2019, the number of new listings entered into TREB’s MLS® System was down by 2.4 per cent year-over-year. For the past decade, annual new listings have been largely in a holding pattern between 150,000 and 160,000, despite the upward trend in home prices over the same period.

“Over the last ten years, TREB has been drawing attention to the housing supply issue in the GTA. Increasingly, policy makers, research groups of varying scope and other interested parties have acknowledged that the lack of a diverse supply of ownership and rental housing continues to hamper housing affordability in the GTA. Taking 2019 as an example, we experienced a strong sales increase up against a decline in supply. Tighter market conditions translated into accelerating price growth. Expect further acceleration in 2020 if there is no relief on the supply front,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Chief Market Analyst.

The MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark was up by 7.3 per cent on a year-over- year basis in December 2019. From June 2019 onward, the annual growth rate in the MLS® HPI Composite Benchmark accelerated. The average selling price in December 2019 was $837,788 – up almost 12 per cent year-over-year. For calendar year 2019, the average selling price was $819,319 – up by four per cent compared to $787,856 in 2018.

“TREB is committed to conducting and sponsoring evidence-based, empirical research on housing market and broader regional economic issues. We share this research in order to contribute to the policy debate. On February 6, 2020, TREB will be releasing its Market Year in Review and Outlook report, which will contain consumer polling results, market overviews and forecasts, and new third-party research on housing and the economy in the GTA,” said TREB CEO John DiMichele.

Toronto Real Estate Board President Michael Collins announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 7,090 sales through TREB’s MLS® System in November 2019 – a 14.2 per cent increase compared to November 2018. On a GTA-wide basis, sales were up year-over-year for all major market segments. Annual sales growth in ground-oriented home types, including detached houses, led the way.

New listings entered into TREB’s MLS® System in November and the active listings count at the end of the month went in the opposite direction compared to last year, with new listings down 17.9 per cent year-over-year and active listings down 27.2 per cent.

“An increasing number of home buyers impacted by demand-side policies over the past three years, including the 2017 Ontario Fair Housing Plan and the OSFI mortgage stress test, have moved back into the market for ownership housing. Based on affordability and stricter mortgage qualification standards, many buyers may have likely adjusted their preferences, changing the type and/or location of home they ultimately chose to purchase,” said Mr. Collins.

“The Greater Toronto Area needs flexible housing market policies that will help sustain balanced market conditions over the long term. All levels of government in Canada plus reputable international bodies have acknowledged that we have a housing supply problem. In 2020, policy makers need to translate their acknowledgment of supply issues into concrete solutions to bring a greater array of ownership and rental housing online. As always, TREB will be there to help policy makers in this regard,” said TREB CEO, John DiMichele.

As market conditions continued to tighten in November 2019, with increased sales up against an increasingly constrained supply of listings, the annual rate of price growth continued to accelerate. The MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark increased by 6.8 per cent year-over-year. The average selling price increased by 7.1 per cent year- over-year to $843,637. Both the MLS® HPI and the average selling price for the TREB market area as a whole experienced the strongest annual rates of price growth for the year in November.

“Strong population growth in the GTA coupled with declining negotiated mortgage rates resulted in sales accounting for a greater share of listings in November and throughout the second half of 2019. Increased competition between buyers has resulted in an acceleration in price growth. Expect the rate of price growth to increase further if we see no relief on the listings supply front,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Chief Market Analyst.

• The staff report published on October 30, 2019 with the Committee of the Whole agenda for their November 6, 2019 meeting, and subsequently removed, was in response to this Council direction. Significantly, this report recommended that the current sign by-law be amended to allow open house signs with no restrictions on sign content.

“The current restrictions on the content of open house signs is ill-advised for many reasons, which TREB has articulated. Not only does this restriction put our Members at odds with the Real Estate and Business Brokers Act, 2002, which requires them to display their identification information on any advertisements, but it also creates concerns for public safety, public confusion, and by-law enforcement, not to mention that it potentially conflicts with the Charter of Rights and Freedoms,” added Collins.

TREB has the following concerns with the current information restriction under the pilot Richmond Hill open house sign by-law:

• Realtors are regulated by the provincial Real Estate and Business Brokers’ Act, 2002, which explicitly requires them to include identification information on all of their advertisements, including signs. As such, TREB is concerned about the current by-law’s apparent conflict with provincial requirements.
• The current restrictions are potentially in violation of s. 2(b) – Freedom of Expression under the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms.
• Without identification information on open house signs, the public has no way of being assured that the open house is being held by a regulated professional who is required to adhere to a strict code of ethics, as Realtors are, thereby potentially making the public more exposed to fraudulent or criminal activity.
• When multiple open houses are held within the same neighbourhood at the same time, it is possible that numerous identical looking open house signs may be positioned nearby, leaving consumers confused.
• Restricting identification information on open house signs will make it much more difficult for municipal by-law enforcement staff to identify the owner of a sign, and thereby prosecute offenders who may infringe on other by-law requirements.“TREB looks forward to continuing to work cooperatively with Richmond Hill Council and staff on this issue and eagerly await Council’s consideration of Richmond Hill staff’s recommendations in advance of November 30, 2019,” added Collins.

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TORONTO, November 5, 2019 – Toronto Real Estate Board President Michael Collins announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 8,491 residential sales through TREB’s MLS® System in October 2019. This result represented a 14 per cent increase compared to 7,448 sales reported in October 2018. GTA-wide, sales were up on a year-over-year basis for all major home types.

“A strong regional economy obviously fuels population growth. All of these new households need a place to live and many have the goal of purchasing a home. The problem is that the supply of available listings is actually dropping, resulting in tighter market conditions and accelerating price growth,” said Mr. Collins.

“During the recent federal election, some parties committed to more flexibility on the mortgage lending front, including the reintroduction of a 30-year amortization period for insured mortgages and more flexibility in the application of the OSFI mortgage stress test. These and other housing-related policy options should be brought forth in the new minority parliament,” continued Mr. Collins.

The trend of annual growth in sales versus annual decline in new listings continued in October 2019, with new listings down by 9.6 per cent compared to October 2018. The resulting tighter market conditions compared to a year ago resulted in positive annual rates of price growth across all major market segments, from a GTA-wide perspective.

“All levels of government affecting the GTA plus many international organizations have recognized that we continue to face a supply issue in our region for all types of housing. TREB looks forward to continuing its work with policy makers at all levels to bring more supply online, which will help ensure a sustainable pace of price and rent growth over the longer term,” said TREB CEO John Di Michele.

The MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark was up by 5.8 per cent on a year- over-year basis in October 2019 – the strongest annual rate of growth since December 2017. The average selling price for all home types combined was up by 5.5 per cent to $852,142, compared to $807,538 in October 2018.

“As market conditions in the GTA have steadily tightened throughout 2019, we have seen an acceleration in the annual rate of price growth. While the current pace of price growth remains moderate, we will likely see stronger price growth moving forward if sales growth continues to outpace listings growth, leading to more competition between home buyers,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Chief Market Analyst.

Toronto Real Estate Board President Michael Collins announced that TREB Commercial Network Members reported 6,295,432 square feet of leased space in Q3 2019 for all lease transactions types across the industrial, commercial/retail and office market segments. This result represented an 8.7 per cent decline compared to Q3 of 2019.

Year-over-year changes in average per square foot net lease rates, for transactions with pricing disclosed, were mixed in Q3 2019. The average commercial/retail lease rate rose to $26.75 in Q3 2019 from $25.71 in Q3 2018. The industrial lease rate was down to $7.43 from $7.80, and the office lease rate declined from $14.89 in Q3 2018 to $13.07 in Q3 2019.

It is important to note that annual changes in average lease rates can be the result of changing market conditions and changes in the mix of properties leased from one year to the next, in terms of location, size, mix and other related variables.

“The Greater Toronto Area continues to be a key centre of economic activity in North America, as evidenced by our low unemployment rate, strong population growth and consistently high standing in global city rankings. Barring any large-scale economic shock, the GTA should continue to see strong investment in all segments of commercial real estate moving forward,” said Mr. Collins.

Total commercial sales amounted to 222 in Q3 2019, down by 73 transactions compared to 295 sales reported in Q3 2018. Year-over-year declines were noted across all market segments.

Toronto Real Estate Board President Michael Collins announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 6,407 condominium apartment sales through TREB’s MLS® System in the third quarter of 2019. This result was up by 11.1 per cent compared to Q3 2018.

New condominium apartment listings entered into TREB’s MLS® System were down by one per cent compared to Q3 2018, with 9,538 listings added in 2019 compared to 9,636 listings added in 2018.

“As economic conditions continue to be favourable for job growth in the Greater Toronto Area, people have continued to come to the city for work. Home ownership is important to many Canadians, and, as a relatively affordable housing option, condos in the GTA offer prospective buyers the chance to achieve their dreams of owning property,” said Mr. Collins.

The average price of a condominium apartment increased by 5.8 per cent from $552,766 in Q3 2018 to $584,564 in Q3 2019. Year-over-year price growth in the City of Toronto, which accounted for nearly 70 per cent of transactions, was slightly lower at 5.6 per cent, resulting in an average price of $628,074.

Strong price growth above the rate of inflation was driven by tightening market conditions, with sales up and listings down relative to last year. One factor underpinning the dip in listings may be the fact that, according to CMHC data, new condominium apartment completions were down year-to-date through August relative to the same time frame in 2018. This may have translated into fewer investor-owned units being listed for sale in Q3 2019 compared to Q3 2018.

“Condominium apartments are obviously a popular choice amongst first-time home- buyers. Moreover, it is also important to remember that condominium apartments owned by investors represent a huge component of the GTA rental stock and certainly account for most additions to the rental stock, on net, over the past decade. With this in mind, a well-supplied condo segment will be important moving forward to ensure that we can keep up with population growth driven by a strong and diverse regional economy,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Chief Market Analyst.

Toronto Real Estate Board President Michael Collins announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 7,825 sales through TREB’s MLS® System in September 2019. This result represented strong year-over-year sales growth of 22 per cent compared to 6,414 sales reported in September 2018. It is important to note, however, that sales remain well-below the record September 2016 peak of more than 9,800 sales.

On a preliminary seasonally adjusted basis, the September 2019 sales level remained in virtually the same as the August 2019 result.

The supply of listings continued to be a concern in September 2019, with new listings down by 1.9 per cent year-over-year to 15,611. We have experienced multiple months this year wherein the annual rate of sales growth outpaced the annual rate of new listings growth, resulting in the overall number of active listings at month-end being well-below last year’s levels. This speaks to tightening market conditions and an accelerating annual rate of price growth.

“Demand for ownership housing increased throughout the spring and summer of 2019 compared to the very slow pace of sales experienced in 2018. That being said, many first-time buyers are still experiencing difficulty finding an affordable home. Federal parties vying for seats in the October election have pledged to alleviate affordability issues hampering first-time buyers with a variety of policy proposals. While these demand-side proposals are important, it is also important that all levels of government remain focused on promoting a sustainable supply of different housing types moving forward,” said Mr. Collins.

The annual rate of price growth in September reached the highest point so far in 2019. The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark was up by 5.2 per cent on a year-over-year basis in September. The average selling price for all home types combined was up by a similar annual rate of 5.8 per cent to $843,115.

On a preliminary seasonally adjusted basis, the September 2019 average selling price was up by 1.2 per cent compared to August 2019.

“It is interesting to note that market conditions for detached homes have tightened over the past year. In many of the regions surrounding the City of Toronto, detached price growth was above the rate of inflation on an annual basis. Consumer polling conducted for TREB over the past few years has pointed out that many intending home buyers are still focused on ground-oriented housing. This points to the need for a greater diversity of housing types to bridge the gap between detached houses and condominium apartments,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Chief Market Analyst.

“Statistics Canada’s most recent national population estimate represented the highest twelve month population increase ever recorded. This growth was driven by immigration, of which the GTA was likely a key beneficiary due to its strong regional economy and diversity. As a result, the demand for all types of housing in the GTA – rental and ownership – will remain strong. This fact underpins the need for immediate and sustained action on housing supply,” said TREB CEO John Di Michele.